News

November 2019 Energy Market Review

The National Energy Market is a noisy place and keeping track of pricing can be complicated. As Energy Experts, we constantly monitor wholesale futures prices so we can help businesses like yours secure the most favourable rates at the right time.

Each month, we compile an electricity market update that gives a snapshot of the market, highlighting issues such as demand and supply which affects pricing.

New South Wales

  • Futures prices for 2020 and 2021 dropped. 2022 and 2023 prices remained consistent.
  • Increased rainfall has replenished Lake Eucumbene to 30 percent, but Snowy’s output is still restricted.
  • Prices for 2020 dropped from 8.5 cents per KWh to 8.2. Prices for 2021 dropped slightly to 7.5 cents per KWh from 7.2 cents per KWh. 
  • Prices for 2022 and 2023 remained stable at 7.1 and 7.2 cents per KWh respectively. 

How did supply and demand affect the price?

  • NSW black-coal units started to turn around with the return to service of Bayswater Unit 2 and Eraring Units 1 and 3.  Free-flowing interconnectors allowed NSW to import cheaper renewable megawatts driving the prices down.
  • NSW experienced early summer-like demand on Tuesday 12/11 with max demand of 10,138 MW.
  • Free-flowing interconnectors allowed NSW to import cheaper renewable megawatts at the start of the month, but this was reversed as bushfires constrained supply significantly.

Baseload Futures price 24 November 2019

2020:8.2c per kWh
2021:7.2c per kWh 
2022:7.1c per kWh
2023:7.2c per kWh

Queensland

  • Futures prices for 2020 dropped to 7.2 cents per KWh.
  • Prices for 2021 are also looking good at 6.05 cents, down from 6.3 cents per KWh.
  • Prices for 2022 are slightly cheaper than a month ago at 6 cents per KWh with prices for 2023 stable at 6.2 cents per KWh.

 How did demand and supply affect prices

  • Prices in Queensland are soft due to there being plentiful supply in the state.
  • Daily prices in Queensland are also soft due to strong solar generation with Rooftop PV with some days maximum surpassing 1,800 MW. 
  • Elevated temperatures kept QLD midday demand volumes above 5,500 MW.
  • QLD’s average prices were dragged down significantly due to a significant constraint placed on the QNI interconnector, allowing only 300 MW (usually 1,100 MW) to flow from QLD to NSW.

Baseload Futures price 24 November 2019

2020:6.9c per kWh 
2021:6.05c per kWh
2022:6c per kWh
2023:6.2c per kWh

South Australia

  • Prices for 2020 dropped substantially from 9.92 cents per kWh to 8.7 cents.
  • Prices 2021 dropped from 7.9 cents last month to 7.3 cents.
  • 2022 saw a substantial dropped marginally to 6.7 cents while 2023 prices also dropped marginally to 8.3 cents. 

How did demand and supply affect the price?

  • Lower demand and good wind and solar generation in throughout the whole month translated into softer spot prices and negative price events.
  • On 11/11 the interconnector was constrained to a point where flows were forced into the already oversupplied SA region resulting in a number of negative priced half hours and a daily average of -$81.10/MWh.
  • There was a $5,000/MWh price spike during the evening peak on Saturday 16/11 caused by interconnection constraints which forced flows away from SA.

Baseload Futures price 24 November 2019

2020:8.7c per kWh
2021:7.3c per kWh
2022:6.7 c per kW
2023:8.3c per kW

Victoria

  • Prices in Victoria are at record highs. But the return to service of the Bass Strait interconnector has alleviated some the pressure.
  • Milder prices are also due to solid wind generation volumes throughout the period under review. Adverse contributing factors included the loss of Yallourn Unit 1 due to a tube leak, and the run-down of Yallourn Unit 4 for maintenance.
  • Futures prices for 2020 dropped from 10.2 cents per KWh to 9.6 cents. Prices for 2021 dropped to 7.8 cents per kWh. Prices for 2022 dropped slightly to 6.6 cents per kWh. Prices for 2023 dropped marginally to 6.9 cents per KWh.

How did supply and demand affect price?

  • Milder temperatures and solid wind generation put downward pressure on prices.
  • An uptick in demand was offset by the return to service of Yallourn Unit 4 on 19/11 and Yallourn Unit 2 on 20/11.
  • The return to service of the Basslink Cable to Tasmania also brought some welcome relief to Victoria.

Baseload Futures price 24 November 2019

2020:9.66c per kWh
2021:7.8c per kWh
2022:6.6c per kWh
2023:6.9c per kWh

We hope that you have found this market wrap useful. If you would like to know what the current and forward curve rates are, we can provide you with a forecast and guide you to help secure the best rates on the market. 

We have helped businesses around Australia cut their energy procurement costs and helped others make direct savings through network tariff changes. Chat to one of our energy experts for a 100 percent obligation free consultation.

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