April 2025 Electricity Market Review

April 2025 delivered one of the sharpest month-on-month electricity price surges in recent memory. National spot prices increased by 25.3% compared to March, driven by a combination of extreme weather impacts, ageing coal infrastructure failures, tight gas markets, and storage limitations across the National Electricity Market (NEM). The result has been a patchwork of outcomes across the states — revealing a widening divide in Australia’s energy transition.

In this review, we examine the drivers of April’s volatility, assess both spot and futures pricing trends, and explore the emerging structural dynamics reshaping the national grid as winter approaches. 

Spot market price changes

• 2024 National Average Spot Price: $88/MWh 
• 2025 Year-to-Date Spot Price: $91.75/MWh (↑ 4.2% YoY) 
• March 2025 Spot Price: $73.20/MWh 
• April 2025 Spot Price: $91.75/MWh (↑ 25.3% MoM) 

New South Wales

Spot prices in NSW climbed 16% year-on-year, pointing to ongoing stress in the state’s electricity system. April was marked by narrow reserve margins during peak periods, a result of lingering heatwaves and increased reliance on expensive gas-fired peakers.

Queensland

Queensland remains the epicentre of market volatility. Spot prices rose 25% in April alone, contributing to a 16.4% annual increase. The scars of Cyclone Alfred, which struck in March, are still being felt.

Victoria

Victoria remains the national leader in price stability, recording an 11.8% decrease in average prices year-on-year. However, April still saw a 21% increase over March, showing that even high-storage, renewables-heavy states are not immune to seasonal fluctuations.

South Australia

South Australia’s average spot price was 3.8% lower year-on-year, April itself saw a 44% price increase, the highest among all states.

This was triggered by low wind output and heavy cloud cover that hampered solar generation.

National Futures Average (April 2025 delivery):

• $98.25/MWh — up ~10% year-on-year
• New South Wales:
  Futures held flat at $120/MWh, remaining $10/MWh higher than April 2024. Elevated prices reflect persistent infrastructure constraints and coal reliability concerns.
• Queensland:
  Dropped slightly to $102/MWh, but still $7/MWh above 2024 levels. Cyclone Alfred recovery and transmission bottlenecks continue to drive risk pricing.
• Victoria:
  Averaged $77/MWh, up $13/MWh year-on-year, reflecting winter demand concerns despite storage-led price moderation.
• South Australia:
  Fell modestly to $94/MWh, $5/MWh above April 2024. Market anticipates volatility from short-duration storage limits and renewable variability.

Cyclone Alfred: A Force Multiplier for QLD’s Energy Strain

Cyclone Alfred was far more than a passing weather system. It revealed the vulnerability of Australia’s energy infrastructure to climate extremes:

• Several transmission lines were damaged in northern Queensland, causing congestion and curtailment of solar and wind resources.
• Solar farms in the cyclone’s path reported sharply reduced output due to persistent overcast conditions.
• Coal units at Callide and Stanwell required emergency inspections and temporary shutdowns.
• Grid congestion forced reliance on peaking gas plants, exacerbating wholesale price spikes.

These events highlight the urgent need for more resilient, decentralised grid architecture and fast-responding firming assets across Queensland and northern NSW.

Old Infrastructure, Persistent Risk

Australia’s ageing coal fleet remains a central risk to price stability. In April, the Eraring Power Station in NSW and Loy Yang A in Victoria suffered multiple outages, reducing dispatchable capacity during critical evening peaks.

Each outage triggered Lack of Reserve (LOR) notices from AEMO, particularly in NSW, amplifying market uncertainty and inviting risk premiums into the spot market.

Meanwhile, reliance on gas-fired generation to cover evening peaks remains problematic. With global LNG prices elevated, domestic gas — priced at export-parity — is increasingly unaffordable for regular grid balancing. The east coast gas market remains tight, despite efforts to restrain exports.

Renewables & Storage: Gains, But Not Yet a Silver Bullet

States that have invested early in renewables and battery storage — particularly Victoria and South Australia — are now enjoying relatively lower spot prices, at least in annual averages.

Victoria brought several grid-scale batteries online in late 2024 and early 2025. These assets are already contributing to price smoothing during evening peaks.

South Australia, powered by a high share of rooftop solar and large-scale wind, continues to experience some of the lowest midday prices in the NEM. However, storage remains short-duration (1–2 hours), limiting its ability to support the grid over multiple cloudy or windless days.

April’s spike proved that while battery storage works well on a daily cycle, multi-day flexibility is still lacking — and Australia has yet to build the depth of storage to fully ride through weather-induced supply troughs.

A Two-Speed Energy Market is Emerging

Australia’s energy market is beginning to fragment along state lines. States like Victoria and South Australia are clearly pulling ahead thanks to:

• Faster renewable deployment
• Early investment in battery storage
• Smart policy frameworks and active grid planning

Meanwhile, NSW and Queensland remain vulnerable. Their legacy reliance on coal, slower grid modernisation, and delays in long-duration storage projects are exposing consumers to price volatility and reliability risks.

Without rapid structural intervention, we may see a two-speed NEM develop — where power prices, reliability, and transition timelines vary dramatically across jurisdictions.

Long-Duration Storage Onboarding

Later this year, NSW’s Phoenix Pumped Hydro Project (800 MW, 15 hours) is set to begin construction, alongside several 8-hour battery systems funded through the state’s long-duration storage tender. If delivered on schedule, these will transform the state’s ability to flatten evening peaks.

Potential Federal Action on Gas

With domestic gas prices staying high, pressure is growing on the Federal Government to strengthen or expand the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM). Options being floated include tighter export caps and enforced domestic reservation — particularly heading into winter.

Winter Grid Resilience Watch

A potential La Niña formation could bring wet, cloudy weather to the eastern seaboard. Expect increased volatility, LOR notices, and demand for the strategic energy reserve. Battery deployments will accelerate — but may not arrive in time to ease winter 2025 pressure.

New South Wales

Wholesale Electricity Base Load Futures:

*The ASX has ceased to report on electricity futures prices for the year 2024. As a result, reporting now covers the years 2025, 2026, 2027

Average Movement Summary:

New South Wales electricity futures prices for March 2025 began at $120/MWh yo-yoing around towards the end of the month but ultimately closing where they started. experiencing a sharp upward jump to close the month at $120/MWh.

Prices for 2027 followed the same trend but 2028 prices closed at $122/MWh. Prices have dropped significantly since January but are still $10/MWh costlier than the same period last year.

Looking to lock in better rates before winter hits? Contact our energy specialists today and explore forward contracts tailored to your risk profile. Take the first step and get started here!

Commentary:

• New South Wales’ average spot prices increased significantly from $90.33/MWh at the end of March to $104/MWh at the end of April.
• Electricity spot prices in March 2025 are $15/MWh (15%) costlier than in the same period in 2024.
• New South Wales registered two near market cap events at $17,480.
• The bulk of trading took place at around the $100/MWh mark. Incidents of negative pricing numbered around 100, with a maximum low of -$40/MWh.
• Renewables share in April 2025 dropped from 36.5% to 33%. Reliance on gas more than doubled from 0.9% to 2%. Coal contribution climbed substantially to 65%.
• There was a small 0.3% contribution to the energy mix by large-scale batteries in April, costing an average of $148/MWh. Gas generation costs dropped sharply from $314/MWh to $121/MWh. Renewables dropped from $67/MWh to $56/MWh. Coal dropped from $ 104/MWh to $93/MWh.

Start comparing current market offers and make your procurement process a breeze. Take the first step and get started here!

Victoria

Wholesale Electricity Base Load Futures:

*The ASX has ceased to report on electricity futures prices for the year 2024. As a result, reporting now covers the years 2025, 2026, 2027

Average Movement Summary:

Victoria futures prices opened the month at $76/MWh, climbing up to $81/MWh by the middle of the month dropping back to close the month at $77/MWh.

Prices for 2026 and 2027 followed the same pattern but at a slightly lower cost.

Electricity prices have fallen significantly since the crisis in October 2022, but they are still $13/MWh higher compared to the same period last year.

Start comparing current market offers and make your procurement process a breeze. Take the first step and get started here!  

Commentary:

• Victorian average spot prices also increased from $75/MWh at the end of March to $78/MWh at the end of April.
• Electricity spot prices are 15% costlier than the same period in 2024  ($68/MWh).
• Although the average of spot prices increased significantly, the market was fairly stable with only two notable price events at the $900/MWh mark.
• The bulk of the trading occurred around the $70/MWh mark.
• Incidents of negative pricing dropped remained stable at about 1500, with a low of -$63/MWh.
• The share of renewables in generation dropped significantly from 41.5% to 38%. Conversely coal contribution increased significantly from 57.1% to 61%. Gas dropped marginally to 0.6%. 
• Batteries contributed 0.7% to the Victorian energy mix, costing an average of $138/MWh. The average cost of renewables remained stable at $48/MWh. Coal dropped from $76/MWh to $48/MWh, and gas dropped substantially from $141/MWh to $127/MWh. 

Queensland

Wholesale Electricity Base Load Futures:

*The ASX has ceased to report on electricity futures prices for the year 2024. As a result, reporting now covers the years 2025, 2026, 2027

Average Movement Summary:

Queensland futures electricity prices opened April at $104/MWh closing the month at $102/MWh. Prices for 2027 and 2028 followed the same trend but dropped sharply at the end of the month.

Electricity prices have come down since the crisis in October 2022 but are $7/MWh costlier than the same period last year.

Start comparing current market offers and make your procurement process a breeze. Take the first step and get started here!  

Commentary:

• Queensland electricity spot prices increased quite drastically from $79/MWh at the end of March to $99/MWh in April – a jump of 25 percent.
• Queensland spot prices are 18% costlier than in March 2024, when the average price was $84/MWh.
• Queensland’s spot market returned to volatility in April with two extreme price events around the $15,550/MWh mark four instances in total with pricing over $10,000/MWh.
• There were around 1,300 instances of negative pricing with lows of -$35/MWh. The bulk of trading occurred at the $90/MWh mark.
• Renewables in Queensland recovered from the effects of cyclone increasing from 25% to 32%. Coal generation dropped back to familiar territory of 62%. Gas remained stable at 5%
• Batteries supplied 0.5% of total generation and the average cost dropped from $156/MWh to $132. Gas prices dropped by a dollar to $114/Mh. Coal dropped slightly to $87 and renewables dropped substantially from $51/MWh to $40/MWh.   

South Australia

Wholesale Electricity Base Load Futures:

*The ASX has ceased to report on electricity futures prices for the year 2024. As a result, reporting now covers the years 2025, 2026, 2027

Average Movement Summary:

South Australia 2026 futures started the month at $97/MWh closing the month at $94/MWh.

Prices have come down substantially since the crisis in October 2022 and are $5/MWh costlier than the same period last year.

Start comparing current market offers and make your procurement process a breeze. Take the first step and get started here!

Commentary:

• South Australia’s average electricity spot prices have been going up and down like a yoyo this year. Prices rose sharply from $62/MWh end March to $99/MWh in April – a jump of almost 45 percent.
•  Electricity spot prices in April 2025 are $6/MWh (6%) dearer than in 2024.
• Although average spot prices for April jumped substantially, pricing events were relatively calm by South Australia’s standards with only two instances where pricing was at the  $1,00/MWh.
• Around 1,500 negative pricing incidents were recorded during April 2025 with a low of -$269/MWh.
• Renewables share of the market dropped from 80% to 75%. Gas generation increased by 5% to 23%.
• Battery contributed 2.3% and averaged a cost of $139/MWh. Gas prices dropped sharply increased from $126/MWh to $132/MWh, and renewables remained steady at $44/MWh.

Take Control of Your Energy Costs 

There is a lot of activity in the wholesale futures market as the new calendar year starts. Many businesses and industrial energy users are going to the market to make forward purchases of wholesale electricity while prices are relatively soft.  

It is worth observing that businesses can go to the market to secure a new contract in advance, even if their current electricity contract is still in effect. 

Depending on your business’s risk appetite, now could be a good time to secure a new energy contract. 

Act now! Reach out to one of our experienced energy consultants today and gain valuable insight into the potential costs that may lie ahead. Don’t wait—take control of your energy expenses now! 

We hope you have found our electricity market update for February 2025 informative and helpful. We understand that these are challenging times, and we are here to support you. If you’d like to delve deeper into the energy market’s previous months, you can find our monthly energy market reviews here.

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Explainer:  Why we focus on Wholesale Futures Prices

Wholesale Futures Price: This reflects what the market expects wholesale electricity spot rates to be in future periods. The offers that commercial and industrial (C&I) customers receive via Leading Edge Energy are closely correlated to wholesale prices on the ASX Energy futures market; this is why we focus on these prices in our commentary.

Spot Price: This represents how much the spot market is charging for electricity currently based on demand and supply. Spot prices go up when demand is high and supply is tight. You can view live Spot Prices here. 

You can learn more about the difference between wholesale electricity futures and spot prices in our blog section.

Disclaimer: The information in this communication is for general information purposes only. It is not intended as financial or investment advice and should not be interpreted or relied upon as such.

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