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September Energy Market Review

The National Energy Market was in a state of flux with high volatility throughout September through a combination of a failure in the Bass Strait connector, the announcement of the closure of Callide B in Queensland being brought forward 10 years and fears that Yallourn could be forced to close down in Victoria.

Victoria’s woes due to tight supply continue, with Queensland unable to export much in terms of volume South due to maintenance on the interconnector.

New South Wales

  • Futures prices for 2020 climbed sharply while 2021 and 2022 remained consistent with the previous month.
  • Increased rainfall has replenished Lake Eucumbene to 29 percent, up 3 percent from last month, but still at very low levels.
  • Queensland’s low volume of export South to New South Wales due to work on the interconnector meant that NSW had to support Victoria with tight supply, leading to high spot prices.
  • Prices for 2020 increased quite sharply to 8.9 cents per KWh from 8.47 per KWh. Prices for 2021 dropped slightly to 7.4 cents per KWh from 7.5 cents per KWh. 

Prices for 2022 dropped from 7.3 cents per KWh to 7.2 cents. 

How did supply and demand affect price?

  • Warm weather in September led to less demand across the board, although those ‘extra’ megawatts were diverted south to Victoria at a time when NSW was not able to import much from the North. 
  • NSW reached demand levels 10,888 MW off the back of sustained cooler temperatures hovering at 13.5 degrees towards the end of the month and into October.
  • NSW thermal generation started to regain strength with the return to service of Delta’s Vales Pt. Unit 6 and EA’s Mt. Piper Unit 2 both returning to service.

Baseload Futures price 10 October 2019

2020 8.5c per kWh
2021 7.5c per KWh 
2022 7.2c per kWh

Queensland

  • Queensland is the most stable state in the National Energy Market for futures prices, but storm clouds could be gathering on the horizon with the closure of Callide B being brought forward 10 years.
  • Futures prices for 2020 at 7.2 cents per KWh.
  • Prices for 2021 are also looking good at 6.4 cents, down from 6.5 cents per KWh.
  • Prices for 2022 are slightly cheaper than a month ago at 6.3 cents per KWh.

How did demand and supply affect prices

  • Prices in Queensland are very soft at present due to there being plentiful supply in the state. The Interconnector South is severely constrained due to maintenance, meaning that there is an abundance of electricity on the market.
  • Daily prices in Queensland are also soft due to strong solar generation with Rooftop PV coupled with lower demand.
  • The 700-Megawatt Callide B Queensland coal fired generator will shut down 10 years ahead of schedule in 2028, prompting fears that night time spot prices will spike. Queensland is very heavily reliant on black coal-fired energy generation, but also has one of the highest new large-scale solar penetration rates in Australia.

Baseload Futures price 10 October 2019

2020 7.2c per kWh 
2021 6.4c per kWh
2022 6.3c per kWh

South Australia

  • Prices for 2020 increased marginally from 9.97 cents per kWh tp 9.99 cents.
  • Prices 2021 dropped slightly from 7.9 cents last month to 7.84 cents.
  • 2022 saw a substantial drop from 8.1 cents at the end of August to 7.05 cents. We would love to help you take advantage of these favourable rates.

How did demand and supply affect price?

  • Lower demand and good wind generation in throughout the whole month translated into softer spot prices.
  • With the issues on Basslink continuing and likely to continue through October, and Tasmania unable to send megawatts to the mainland, SA was required again to send megawatts across the interconnector into VIC linking the two spot price outcomes  

Baseload Futures price 10 October 2019

2020 9.99c per kWh
2021 7.84c per kWh
2022 7.05 c per kW

Victoria

  • Prices in Victoria are reaching record highs as the state experiences increased demand and constrained supply. Outages and failure of the Bass Strait interconnector fuelled the price hike due to constrained supply.
  • Origin’s Mortlake was estimated to come back online in December but has been pushed back. Loy Yang A is also expected to come back online later than expected. 

Fears of major price spikes have also surfaced due to the potential closure of EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn coal-fired plant.

  • Futures prices for 2020 increased to 10.3 cents per KWh. Prices for 2021 increased from 8 cents per 8.2 cents per kWh. Prices for 2022 remained relatively stable at 7 cents per kWh. 

How did supply and demand affect price?

  • Increased volatility on the market has already been registered and futures for Q3 and Q4 are rising steadily in the forward curve.
  • The failure of the Bass Interconnector has made matters worse, forcing Victoria to rely on NSW and S.A. to import energy.
  • High levels of wind generation throughout the month prevented prices for spiralling out of control. 

Baseload Futures price 10 October 2019

2020 10.3c per kWh
2021 8.2c per kWh
2022 7c per kWh

We hope that you have found this market wrap useful. If you would like to know what the current and forward curve rates are, we can provide you with a forecast and guide you to help secure the best rates on the market.

We’re always looking to add value to new business clients. If you are happy with the way Leading Edge Energy has helped your business, please refer us to anyone else who might benefit from our solar, gas or energy efficiency services.

Speak to an Energy Management Consultant

Ben Walllington
0412 676 114
Madonna Ghajar
0412 046 022
Ewen Beard
0481 345 181